markets

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.65%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=65.32%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA FY2028 (Feb 2027 – Jan 2028) revenue exceed $400B?': YES=59.10%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=10.00%

Manifold consensus on '"NVIDIA uses 12VHPWR-style connector for next-gen GPUs?"': YES=75.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia stock $300 or higher in 2026': YES=19.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=8.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in the first half of 2026?': YES=23.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?': YES=28.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay?': YES=14.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=1.30%

Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29?': YES=7.90%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: Japan (-2.5)': YES=1.10%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan?': YES=13.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 29?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?': YES=1.60%

Polymarket top market 'Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 2.5': YES=50.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?': YES=15.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw?': YES=32.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29?': YES=99.60%

Polymarket top market 'Iran leadership change by June 30?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan?': YES=5.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?': YES=55.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will France win on 2026-06-30?': YES=78.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ayo Dosunmu play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?': YES=5.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance': YES=86.00%

Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?': YES=23.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 29?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?': YES=44.00%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?': YES=19.00%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?': YES=40.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?': YES=10.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: Japan (-1.5)': YES=5.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Wimbledon ATP: Hamad Medjedovic vs Sebastian Ofner': YES=1.00%