markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will a new, full-length Stargate series premiere in 2023?': YES=2.14%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we get new Stargate before 2025?': YES=1.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will President Trump speak negatively about Sam Altman by the end of February 2025?': YES=1.00%

Manifold consensus on 'In 2024, will OpenAI/Microsoft confirm plans to build a supercomputer like the rumored $100 billion "Stargate"?': YES=4.57%

Manifold consensus on 'Will "Quotes from the Stargate press conference" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?': YES=4.78%

Manifold consensus on 'Stargate Argentina built before 2028?': YES=36.06%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Stargate be the US version of the Chinese Social Credit System (社会信用体系) by the end of 2028?': YES=7.05%

Manifold consensus on 'Stargate Project to add a new major technology partner by EOY?': YES=60.60%

Manifold consensus on 'Will MSFT acquire/merge with OpenAI by the end of 2027?': YES=20.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a new live-action Stargate movie/TV-series start filming before Stargate invests $500B in AI?': YES=64.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the Chinese government announce a equivalent AI project to Stargate in 2025': YES=12.68%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the Stargate project work?': YES=56.66%

Manifold consensus on 'Will all 500 billion dollars from Project Stargate actually get invested within four years?': YES=29.42%

Manifold consensus on 'OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?': YES=10.83%

Manifold consensus on 'Will we actually see someone bomb an AI datacenter before 2027?': YES=7.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA maintain a >=75% of the Data center market share for at least 4 quarters by the end of 2025?': YES=90.73%

Manifold consensus on 'Will U.S. data center electricity consumption exceed 10% of total U.S. power demand by end of 2030?': YES=45.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Lumen Orbit have at least one functioning megawatt-scale data center in space by the end of 2027?': YES=2.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any Amazon Web Services data center be nationalized by any country by 2030?': YES=39.46%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be over 1 GW of data center on the moon by EOY 2032?': YES=16.74%

Manifold consensus on 'Will data center technicians still be necessary in 2027?': YES=92.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be an AI data center powered by new nuclear power by 2030?': YES=74.12%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Microsoft power its data center with SMR(Small Modular Reactor) by 2030?': YES=36.36%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Helion provide nuclear fusion power to a data center before end of 2028?': YES=7.76%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be a functional ≥100MW data center in space before 2031?': YES=21.69%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the pope bless a data center before 2026?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be a data center on the moon Europa by EOY 2066?': YES=38.81%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be a data center on the planet Venus by 2127?': YES=32.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will data centers consume more than 10% of US electricity usage by EOY 2028?': YES=65.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Is Trump's ballroom project an underground data center?': YES=17.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Gov. Hochul sign New York's data center moratorium (S10642/A11560) into law by Dec 31, 2026?': YES=41.19%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Russia announce completion of an AI data center with >10,000 AI accelerators (GPUs/TPUs) before 2027?': YES=34.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the AI Data Center Moratorium Act (S.4214) pass Congress by end of the 119th Congress?': YES=7.65%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Gov. Hochul sign New York's data center moratorium (S10642/A11560) into law by Dec 31, 2026?': YES=44.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will $ASML reach $1700 at least once in 2024?': YES=1.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will there be evidence of ASML selling 1 or more EUV machines to China or a Chinese company in 2023?': YES=6.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024?': YES=96.17%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?': YES=56.45%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Peter Wennink (CEO of ASML) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?': YES=11.23%

Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?': YES=69.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any 4 of AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM lose 60% of their peak value before 2028?': YES=24.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?': YES=83.77%

Manifold consensus on 'Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?': YES=79.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)': YES=16.70%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the US force ASML to halt exports to China before 2029?': YES=28.60%

Manifold consensus on '[Metaculus] Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?': YES=60.81%

Manifold consensus on 'Will a US semiconductor fab begin volume production of 3nm chips in 2024?': YES=11.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China's Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) achieve the 3nm chip generation before 2026?': YES=11.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will flooding in North Carolina result in semiconductor manufacturing issues?': YES=1.75%

Manifold consensus on 'Will someone disrupt the global semiconductor supply chain by disrupting high-purity quartz mines by EOY 2028?': YES=10.58%