markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-27 · run status: success with data
Polymarket top market 'Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=41.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?': YES=30.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-01Belgium vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5
Polymarket top market 'Belgium vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5': YES=75.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-01Belgium vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5
Polymarket top market 'Belgium vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5': YES=49.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 1?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?': YES=10.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-01Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?
Polymarket top market 'Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?': YES=4.30%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-01Spread: Argentina (-1.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: Argentina (-1.5)': YES=62.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=3.60%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-01Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?
Polymarket top market 'Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?': YES=74.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-01Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?
Polymarket top market 'Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?': YES=84.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Austin Reaves play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=79.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-01Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?': YES=4.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Wimbledon ATP: Mariano Navone vs Flavio Cobolli': YES=12.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?': YES=46.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Corey Seager win the 2026 American League MVP Award?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?': YES=28.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=4.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?': YES=11.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Dayana Yastremska be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-01Will England win on 2026-07-01?
Polymarket top market 'Will England win on 2026-07-01?': YES=76.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?': YES=28.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-01Will United States win on 2026-07-01?
Polymarket top market 'Will United States win on 2026-07-01?': YES=71.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-01Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?
Polymarket top market 'Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?': YES=46.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Wimbledon ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Terence Atmane': YES=84.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?': YES=98.20%
ANTHROPICmarket:polymarket- 2026-07-01Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?
Polymarket top market 'Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?': YES=26.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Carlos Rodón strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-01Spread: United States (-1.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: United States (-1.5)': YES=45.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?': YES=2.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-01England vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5
Polymarket top market 'England vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5': YES=48.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Wimbledon ATP: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier': YES=72.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-01Will DR Congo win on 2026-07-01?
Polymarket top market 'Will DR Congo win on 2026-07-01?': YES=6.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?': YES=15.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket