markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
Polymarket top market 'Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?': YES=7.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?': YES=4.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-08Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Morocco?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Morocco?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-08Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15?
Polymarket top market 'Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15?': YES=5.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-08Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Morocco?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Morocco?': YES=4.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-08Spread: France (-1.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: France (-1.5)': YES=36.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=5.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-08Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw?
Polymarket top market 'Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw?': YES=25.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-08Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-08Newport: Lea Ma vs Clervie Ngounoue
Polymarket top market 'Newport: Lea Ma vs Clervie Ngounoue': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-08Will Graham Platner drop out by July 17?
Polymarket top market 'Will Graham Platner drop out by July 17?': YES=97.60%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=58.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?': YES=6.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-08S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 8?
Polymarket top market 'S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 8?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-08Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Morocco?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Morocco?': YES=7.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs 1win - Game 2 Winner': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-08Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=15.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Newport: Alexis Galarneau vs Juan Pablo Ficovich': YES=85.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Rodri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?': YES=90.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-08Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5
Polymarket top market 'Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5': YES=54.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?': YES=24.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-08Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?
Polymarket top market 'Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?': YES=17.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?': YES=2.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs': YES=39.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Novak Djokovic': YES=80.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?': YES=10.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-08Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Morocco?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Morocco?': YES=1.20%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-08Iran full airspace closure by July 15?
Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 15?': YES=21.50%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-08France vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5
Polymarket top market 'France vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5': YES=28.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Arthur Fery be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?': YES=2.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-08Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs OG - Game 2 Winner
Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs OG - Game 2 Winner': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will James Harden play for the Memphis Grizzlies in 2026-27?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Newport: Sachia Vickery vs Reese Brantmeier': YES=6.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Trieste: Andrea Pellegrino vs Raul Brancaccio': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?': YES=29.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?': YES=13.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=21.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-08Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Morocco?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Morocco?': YES=4.60%
market:polymarket