markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will the market for AI Inference chips be 5X larger than the market for training chips at the end of 2026?': YES=27.72%

Manifold consensus on '[Metaculus] Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?': YES=96.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.': YES=13.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI publicly share software it developed to make its AI run on chips from different providers, in 2026?': YES=24.71%

Manifold consensus on '6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.': YES=60.62%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the market for AI Inference chips be 2X larger than the market for training chips at the end of 2026?': YES=34.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the Nvidia Stock close higher in Feb than Jan': YES=43.45%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap at the end of 2025?': YES=99.24%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=12.50%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=10.08%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=27.76%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=54.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=54.00%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%

Polymarket top market 'Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 9.5 Total Corners': YES=48.00%

Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by July 15?': YES=5.50%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=62.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=4.90%

Polymarket top market 'Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?': YES=9.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 10?': YES=99.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 10?': YES=1.40%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)': YES=0.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?': YES=59.20%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Belgium?': YES=12.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Belgium?': YES=7.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?': YES=12.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Romelu Lukaku be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Seattle Storm vs. Atlanta Dream': YES=3.80%

Polymarket top market 'Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire': YES=81.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 10?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?': YES=20.00%