markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-28 · run status: success with data
Polymarket top market 'Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?': YES=2.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-11Spread: Norway (-4.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: Norway (-4.5)': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-11Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 England?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 England?': YES=12.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?': YES=14.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?': YES=41.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?': YES=6.70%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-11Dallas Wings vs. Toronto Tempo
Polymarket top market 'Dallas Wings vs. Toronto Tempo': YES=92.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-11Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers
Polymarket top market 'Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers': YES=19.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-11Norway vs. England: Both Teams to Score
Polymarket top market 'Norway vs. England: Both Teams to Score': YES=60.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-11Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?
Polymarket top market 'Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?': YES=26.25%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-11Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs LYON (+2.5)
Polymarket top market 'Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs LYON (+2.5)': YES=50.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will CJ Abrams hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5': YES=46.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Pedri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?': YES=22.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-11Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?': YES=0.10%
OPENAImarket:polymarket Polymarket top market 'US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?': YES=58.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-11Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres
Polymarket top market 'Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres': YES=47.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-11Iran full airspace closure by July 15?
Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 15?': YES=6.60%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'New York Yankees vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5': YES=41.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)': YES=42.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants': YES=43.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-11Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 England?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 England?': YES=7.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=22.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Ousmane Dembélé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=2.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers': YES=35.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Rodri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'UFC 329: Cesar Almeida vs. Damian Pinas (Middleweight, Early Prelims)': YES=30.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-11Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 England?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 England?': YES=4.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=2.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-11Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds
Polymarket top market 'Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds': YES=14.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-11Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 England?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 England?': YES=1.90%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-11Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles
Polymarket top market 'Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles': YES=5.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=78.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-11Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets
Polymarket top market 'Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets': YES=65.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-11Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Polymarket top market 'Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-11Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5
Polymarket top market 'Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5': YES=25.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance': YES=74.75%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-11Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Polymarket top market 'Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates': YES=44.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Civic Platform (GP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-11Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota Twins
Polymarket top market 'Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota Twins': YES=57.00%
market:polymarket