markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=12.50%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=10.08%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=27.76%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=54.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=54.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.09%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Tesla overtake NVIDIA in market cap before 2030?': YES=15.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 12?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets': YES=51.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 6-12?': YES=3.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?': YES=10.70%

Polymarket top market 'Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays': YES=43.00%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Misa Esports - Map 2 Winner': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?': YES=3.60%

Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 31?': YES=23.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?': YES=2.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.70%

Polymarket top market 'England vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5': YES=43.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?': YES=3.90%

Polymarket top market 'Set 1 Winner: Sinner vs Zverev': YES=39.00%

Polymarket top market 'Philadelphia Phillies vs. Detroit Tigers': YES=46.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?': YES=44.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Spain?': YES=10.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=2.50%

Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by July 15?': YES=4.40%

Polymarket top market 'New York Yankees vs. Washington Nationals': YES=48.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?': YES=30.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?': YES=18.00%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs Brute (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #1 Group A': YES=49.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?': YES=7.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will IK Sirius win on 2026-07-12?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Spain?': YES=8.00%