markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
Polymarket top market 'Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?': YES=96.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner': YES=99.90%
CIRCLEmarket:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs The Last Resort - Map 1 Winner': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?': YES=7.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Valorant: 100 Thieves vs NRG - Map 4 Winner': YES=37.00%
NRGmarket:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=20.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-12Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Spain?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Spain?': YES=8.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-12Fed rate hike in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Fed rate hike in 2026?': YES=59.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-12Spread: France (-1.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: France (-1.5)': YES=19.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?': YES=18.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-12Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Spain?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Spain?': YES=3.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-12Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Spain?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Spain?': YES=16.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=63.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?': YES=55.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Valorant: 100 Thieves vs NRG - Map 2 Winner': YES=99.90%
NRGmarket:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?': YES=61.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-12England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
Polymarket top market 'England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance': YES=56.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-12World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?
Polymarket top market 'World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=4.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?': YES=40.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5': YES=55.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Valorant: 100 Thieves vs NRG - Map 1 Winner': YES=99.90%
NRGmarket:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?': YES=45.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=80.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?': YES=60.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-12Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Spain?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Spain?': YES=1.40%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=4.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=2.50%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-12Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Spain?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Spain?': YES=4.80%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Valorant: 100 Thieves vs NRG - Map 3 Winner': YES=0.10%
NRGmarket:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?': YES=5.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-12Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins
Polymarket top market 'Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins': YES=51.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Pedri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=34.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?': YES=2.50%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-12Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?
Polymarket top market 'Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?': YES=29.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Zverev (+1.5)': YES=35.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=56.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.70%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-12Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox
Polymarket top market 'Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox': YES=43.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-12France vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score
Polymarket top market 'France vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score': YES=60.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Ousmane Dembélé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.50%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-12Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Polymarket top market 'Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates': YES=21.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.70%
market:polymarket