markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-27 · run status: success with data
Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5': YES=6.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-20Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-20Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)': YES=19.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?': YES=73.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=30.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=37.60%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-20Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=31.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5': YES=4.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-20Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury
Polymarket top market 'Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?': YES=9.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=6.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-20Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Yankees
Polymarket top market 'Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Yankees': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=7.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?': YES=1.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=92.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?': YES=1.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 NL Central title?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-20Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Yankees
Polymarket top market 'Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Yankees': YES=24.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-20Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?
Polymarket top market 'Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?': YES=99.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Belete Molla be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=27.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=40.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=1.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=7.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket