markets

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=49.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the first $10 Trillion dollar company be Nvidia?': YES=37.78%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the first $10 Trillion dollar company be Apple OR Microsoft OR Nvidia?': YES=58.15%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 27?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?': YES=3.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?': YES=1.60%

Polymarket top market 'Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?': YES=9.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 31?': YES=7.00%

Polymarket top market 'Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=5.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?': YES=18.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?': YES=59.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 27?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Indiana Pacers win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=1.80%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: T1 Academy vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Challenge Group': YES=73.00%

Polymarket top market 'Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 3.5T yuan?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stage': YES=86.00%

Polymarket top market 'Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins': YES=62.00%

Polymarket top market 'Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=6.40%

Polymarket top market 'Iran leadership change by July 31?': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?': YES=25.00%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=56.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?': YES=2.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 27?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket top market 'Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?': YES=8.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 27?': YES=97.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?': YES=81.80%

Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on July 27?': YES=74.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in July?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?': YES=66.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=44.90%

Polymarket top market 'Fed rate hike in 2026?': YES=68.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 2T yuan?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 27?': YES=9.00%