markets

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=49.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=18.07%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.38%

Polymarket top market 'Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?': YES=9.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?': YES=27.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?': YES=4.00%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Challenge Group': YES=82.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?': YES=98.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in July?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Los Cabos Open: Cameron Norrie vs Bernard Tomic': YES=91.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?': YES=4.20%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend': YES=86.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Iran leadership change by July 31?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?': YES=5.00%

Polymarket top market 'NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors?': YES=5.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?': YES=9.00%

Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 31?': YES=1.20%

Polymarket top market 'China x Japan military clash before 2027?': YES=8.00%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend': YES=27.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=23.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-07-31?': YES=70.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?': YES=4.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?': YES=26.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?': YES=16.10%

Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=5.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?': YES=40.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Russia capture Havrylivka by September 30, 2026?': YES=5.80%

Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?': YES=94.00%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group': YES=57.00%

Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on July 31?': YES=33.00%

Polymarket top market 'GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?': YES=87.10%

Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by July 31?': YES=1.40%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs DN SOOPers Challengers - Game 1 Winner': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?': YES=70.40%

Polymarket top market 'NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?': YES=9.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.70%