markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=18.07%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=10.08%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=27.76%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=49.00%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=49.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=1.01%

Polymarket top market 'Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'National Bank Open: James Duckworth vs Christopher O'Connell': YES=42.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?': YES=42.00%

Polymarket top market 'Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Fares Zakaria vs Daniil Glinka': YES=6.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on August 4?': YES=99.80%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?': YES=68.00%

Polymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?': YES=1.50%

Polymarket top market 'Trump out as President before 2027?': YES=7.00%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?': YES=21.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?': YES=12.40%

Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by August 15?': YES=8.00%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs Misa Esports (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #2 Group D': YES=68.00%

Polymarket top market 'Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Michele Ribecai vs Iliyan Radulov': YES=84.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August?': YES=19.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'National Bank Open: Emerson Jones vs Lanlana Tararudee': YES=33.00%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Butterfly (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs': YES=62.00%

Polymarket top market 'Ethereum Up or Down on August 3?': YES=37.00%

Polymarket top market 'Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by September 30?': YES=9.00%

Polymarket top market 'Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?': YES=26.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 3?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by September 30, 2026?': YES=9.70%

Polymarket top market 'Fed rate hike in 2026?': YES=67.00%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?': YES=75.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=3.00%

Polymarket top market 'St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees': YES=34.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=9.00%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner': YES=1.00%