markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
- 2026-08-03Warsaw: Alana Smith vs Yue Yuan
Polymarket top market 'Warsaw: Alana Smith vs Yue Yuan': YES=3.80%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?': YES=98.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?': YES=69.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?': YES=39.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-03Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in August?': YES=6.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 4?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?': YES=93.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-03Iran leadership change by December 31?
Polymarket top market 'Iran leadership change by December 31?': YES=14.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?': YES=58.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?': YES=82.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 4?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?': YES=19.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?': YES=17.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?': YES=4.70%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-03Bitcoin Up or Down on August 3?
Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on August 3?': YES=72.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record?': YES=94.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=1.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in August?': YES=4.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Canadian Open: Matteo Berrettini vs Mariano Navone': YES=64.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=57.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Natus Vincere vs Shifters (BO3) - LEC Regular Season': YES=68.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?': YES=8.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'National Bank Open: Lois Boisson vs Antonia Ruzic': YES=74.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?': YES=22.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Johnny Speeds (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat I Group D': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=1.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?': YES=1.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?': YES=99.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-03Trump out as President by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Trump out as President by August 31?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?': YES=99.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=1.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?': YES=88.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=43.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Challenge Group': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'National Bank Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Shuai Zhang': YES=67.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Dota 2: OG vs GamerLegion (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket