markets

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=49.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=1.01%

Polymarket top market 'Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?': YES=88.70%

Polymarket top market 'Warsaw: Amelia Paszun vs Weronika Falkowska': YES=11.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 4?': YES=1.20%

Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=2.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?': YES=3.90%

Polymarket top market 'Trump out as President before 2027?': YES=6.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on August 4?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?': YES=1.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by September 30, 2026?': YES=9.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?': YES=98.40%

Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by August 15?': YES=8.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 4?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: Natus Vincere vs Shifters (BO3) - LEC Regular Season': YES=68.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Lilmix (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat I Group D': YES=97.10%

Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on August 3?': YES=21.00%

Polymarket top market 'Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by September 30?': YES=9.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'National Bank Open: Emerson Jones vs Lanlana Tararudee': YES=32.00%

Polymarket top market 'Warsaw: Aliona Falei vs Urszula Radwanska': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=3.00%

Polymarket top market 'Fed rate hike in 2026?': YES=68.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 3?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=8.90%

Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs 1win (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?': YES=79.00%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects - Map 2 Winner': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?': YES=74.00%

Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs': YES=68.00%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?': YES=69.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?': YES=85.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in August?': YES=6.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?': YES=45.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?': YES=93.00%

Polymarket top market 'Iran leadership change by December 31?': YES=14.00%