markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
Polymarket top market 'Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 4?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August?': YES=5.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?': YES=29.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?': YES=29.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'UFC Fight Night: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Main Card)': YES=42.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?': YES=98.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?': YES=1.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'National Bank Open: Magdalena Frech vs Leolia Jeanjean': YES=56.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-03Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?': YES=88.70%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-03Iran full airspace closure by August 15?
Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by August 15?': YES=12.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 4?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?': YES=3.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?': YES=2.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-03Trump out as President before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Trump out as President before 2027?': YES=7.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Tottenham win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?': YES=3.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=7.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?': YES=2.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by September 30?': YES=9.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-03Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by August 31?': YES=19.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner': YES=27.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=3.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-03Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Polymarket top market 'Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=7.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'National Bank Open: Emerson Jones vs Lanlana Tararudee': YES=33.00%
EMRmarket:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 3?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=8.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs': YES=68.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-03Fed rate hike in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Fed rate hike in 2026?': YES=67.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?': YES=84.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?': YES=74.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=2.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?': YES=79.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-03Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in August?': YES=6.50%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?': YES=68.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?': YES=46.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?': YES=91.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-03Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Polymarket top market 'Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-03Iran leadership change by December 31?
Polymarket top market 'Iran leadership change by December 31?': YES=14.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-03Israel closes its airspace by August 15?
Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by August 15?': YES=9.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?': YES=68.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record?': YES=93.30%
market:polymarket