markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=58.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?': YES=49.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 4?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?': YES=87.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs OG (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs': YES=79.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Warsaw: Marcelina Podlinska vs Vendula Valdmannova': YES=16.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?': YES=13.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=55.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?': YES=64.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=53.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-04Will Bayern Munich win on 2026-08-04?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bayern Munich win on 2026-08-04?': YES=82.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 4?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Trial Group': YES=0.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 1 Winner': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 4?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 2 Winner': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?': YES=33.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Gen.G vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - KeSPA Cup Last Chance Qualifier': YES=96.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?': YES=99.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Slavia Prague win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs OG - Game 1 Winner': YES=76.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 4?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-04Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Polymarket top market 'Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=8.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?': YES=7.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?': YES=20.90%
AAPLmarket:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?': YES=24.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 4?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 4?': YES=97.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-04LoL: Gen.G vs DN SOOPers - Game 1 Winner
Polymarket top market 'LoL: Gen.G vs DN SOOPers - Game 1 Winner': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?': YES=87.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?': YES=24.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?': YES=12.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=1.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?': YES=52.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: T1 vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: T1 vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-04Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=20.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?': YES=2.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: T1 vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - KeSPA Cup Last Chance Qualifier': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket