markets

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=6.83%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close higher on August 31?': YES=59.67%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the first $10 Trillion dollar company be Apple OR Microsoft OR Nvidia?': YES=67.00%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=1.01%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=15.81%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on August 11?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Tampa Bay Rays vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5': YES=53.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in August?': YES=54.00%

Polymarket top market 'Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?': YES=1.60%

Polymarket top market 'Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on August 10?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will CA Unión win on 2026-08-10?': YES=77.00%

Polymarket top market 'Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?': YES=4.00%

Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026?': YES=4.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)': YES=49.00%

Polymarket top market 'Chicago Sky vs. Seattle Storm': YES=56.00%

Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?': YES=4.20%

Polymarket top market 'Game Handicap: RED (-1.5) vs Leviatan Esports (+1.5)': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?': YES=33.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 16?': YES=11.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'ITF koksijde: Jelle Sels vs Lars Goran Verwerft': YES=50.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?': YES=5.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?': YES=0.80%

Polymarket top market 'Fed rate hike in 2026?': YES=58.00%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Baltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5': YES=48.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on August 10?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres': YES=53.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will CA Central Córdoba win on 2026-08-10?': YES=6.00%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?': YES=15.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 11?': YES=98.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?': YES=66.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?': YES=50.00%

Polymarket top market 'Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs paiN Gaming (+1.5)': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=16.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in August?': YES=2.20%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?': YES=94.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?': YES=5.70%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=47.00%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Toronto Raptors win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=3.70%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)': YES=19.00%

Polymarket top market 'Total Internet Blackout in Iran by August 31, 2026?': YES=7.00%