markets

Polymarket/Manifold/Kalshi

2,696 events on 2026-08-12role: thematic30d fetch windowcadence: contextaccess: keyless

Extracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt

Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.

Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.

Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data

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2026-08-12Brownsburg: Colton Smith vs Felix Gill
Polymarket top market 'Brownsburg: Colton Smith vs Felix Gill': YES=61.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-12Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Polymarket top market 'Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket
2026-08-12US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?': YES=98.40%
market:polymarket
2026-08-12Counter-Strike: magic vs TheMongolz (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group D
Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: magic vs TheMongolz (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group D': YES=46.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-12Counter-Strike: BIG vs Aurora Gaming (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group A
Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: BIG vs Aurora Gaming (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group A': YES=40.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-12Will Mark Sanford be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
Polymarket top market 'Will Mark Sanford be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-12Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Henrique Rocha
Polymarket top market 'Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Henrique Rocha': YES=67.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-12Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?
Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?': YES=96.70%
market:polymarket
2026-08-12US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?': YES=98.50%
market:polymarket
2026-08-12Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs K27 (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group B
Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs K27 (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group B': YES=80.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-12Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 12?
Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 12?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket
2026-08-12US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-12Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
Polymarket top market 'Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?': YES=72.60%
market:polymarket
2026-08-12Trump out as President by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Trump out as President by August 31?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarket
2026-08-12US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?': YES=33.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-12Will Phoenix Suns win the 2027 NBA Finals?
Polymarket top market 'Will Phoenix Suns win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket
2026-08-12Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs GamerLegion (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group A
Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs GamerLegion (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group A': YES=51.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-12Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=48.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-12Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
Polymarket top market 'Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?': YES=99.70%
market:polymarket
2026-08-12Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
Polymarket top market 'Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarket
2026-08-12LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group
Polymarket top market 'LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group': YES=14.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-12Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=18.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-12LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Trial Group
Polymarket top market 'LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Trial Group': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-12Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?': YES=17.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-12US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?': YES=10.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-12Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?': YES=15.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-12Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
Polymarket top market 'Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-12Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?
Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket
2026-08-12Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Polymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=62.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-12Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket
2026-08-12Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=37.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-12Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=1.90%
market:polymarket
2026-08-12Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?
Polymarket top market 'Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?': YES=33.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-12Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket
2026-08-12Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?': YES=3.90%
market:polymarket
2026-08-12US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?': YES=98.50%
market:polymarket
2026-08-12LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner
Polymarket top market 'LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-12Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
Polymarket top market 'Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket
2026-08-12Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-12Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-12Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-12Will Tim Scott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Tim Scott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-12Will Candace Owens win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Candace Owens win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-12Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-12Will Josh Stein win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Josh Stein win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-12Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-12Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-12Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-12Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-12Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket