markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=46.40%
GOOGLmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=46.47%
GOOGLmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close higher on August 31?': YES=58.39%
NVDAmarket:manifold- 2026-08-13Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=17.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will FC Red Bull Salzburg win on 2026-08-13?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-13Will PAOK win on 2026-08-13?
Polymarket top market 'Will PAOK win on 2026-08-13?': YES=4.80%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?': YES=41.00%
ANTHROPICmarket:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Cincinnati Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Adrian Mannarino': YES=57.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Páfos FC vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 3.5': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=7.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?': YES=16.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?': YES=9.60%
ANTHROPICmarket:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Universitatea Craiova CS vs. Kuopion PS: O/U 3.5': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?': YES=2.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=2.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-13Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in August?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'UFC 330: Vicente Luque vs. Tresean Gore (Middleweight, Early Prelims)': YES=49.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Solary vs Vitality.Bee - Game 2 Winner': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-13Will Kai and Speed have between 50 and 69 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?
Polymarket top market 'Will Kai and Speed have between 50 and 69 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 14?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Cincinnati Open: Tatjana Maria vs Dayana Yastremska': YES=95.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Keyd (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Playoffs': YES=33.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?': YES=72.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 14?': YES=99.40%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-13Bitcoin Up or Down on August 14?
Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on August 14?': YES=51.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?': YES=2.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jan Choinski': YES=72.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 14?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-13Will Hammarby Fotboll win on 2026-08-13?
Polymarket top market 'Will Hammarby Fotboll win on 2026-08-13?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Universitatea Craiova CS vs. Kuopion PS: O/U 2.5': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-13Fed rate hike in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Fed rate hike in 2026?': YES=53.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 14?': YES=99.80%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-13Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-08-13?
Polymarket top market 'Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-08-13?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'LoL: Solary vs Vitality.Bee (BO3) - LFL Playoffs': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=3.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 0.5': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Feyenoord win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?': YES=51.70%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-13Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in August?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=45.00%
market:polymarket