markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=48.34%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=18.07%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=8.47%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=27.76%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=85.99%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=59.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=44.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=46.47%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=6.49%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=15.34%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=6.98%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=39.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close higher on August 31?': YES=58.39%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on August 18?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Sion: Dimitar Kuzmanov vs Marvin Moeller': YES=69.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 18?': YES=81.00%

Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?': YES=2.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?': YES=15.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in August?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=13.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.20%

Polymarket top market 'Fed rate hike in 2026?': YES=48.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?': YES=3.70%

Polymarket top market 'Sion: Ognjen Milic vs Lucio Ratti': YES=13.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on August 18?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=12.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Jay Collins be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?': YES=94.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?': YES=13.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on August 18?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Team Falcons Win the CS2 EWC 2026?': YES=18.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 18?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?': YES=18.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?': YES=0.20%