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MSFTUShyperscalerpublic

Microsoft Corporation

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market consensus 10prediction-market quotes (latest)

recent signals

2026-08-13·MSFT·security risk
not priced inmeddown

On 2026-08-12, security researcher Nightmare Eclipse publicly disclosed ShieldBreak, a new Windows zero-day affecting...

On 2026-08-12, security researcher Nightmare Eclipse publicly disclosed ShieldBreak, a new Windows zero-day affecting Windows 10, 11 (including 25H2), and Windows Server 2025.

window 15devidence 93MSFT $496.88 / 45d n/a
2026-08-12·MSFT·data center nuclear power
partly pricedlowup

Two Manifold prediction markets reflect growing investor expectations that Microsoft will deploy nuclear power for its...

Two Manifold prediction markets reflect growing investor expectations that Microsoft will deploy nuclear power for its data centers.

spilloverORCLAMZNGOOGL
window 90devidence 4MSFT $496.88 / 45d n/a
2026-08-12·MSFT·data center buildout
partly pricedlowup

At OCP APAC 2026, Microsoft is signaling an aggressive expansion of its AI infrastructure through Taiwan-based...

At OCP APAC 2026, Microsoft is signaling an aggressive expansion of its AI infrastructure through Taiwan-based suppliers, covering the full stack from silicon to systems.

spilloverTSMAVGOMRVLNVDA
window 45devidence 42MSFT $496.88 / 45d n/a
2026-08-11·MSFT·revenue concentration risk
not priced inlowdown

Microsoft's SEC XBRL fundamentals (10-K filed 2026-07-29) show FY revenue of $245.1B and net income of $88.1B.

Microsoft's SEC XBRL fundamentals (10-K filed 2026-07-29) show FY revenue of $245.1B and net income of $88.1B.

window 30devidence 41MSFT $496.88 / 45d n/a
2026-08-10·MSFT·power ppa
partly pricedmedup

Two independent Manifold markets suggest Microsoft is increasingly expected to adopt nuclear power for its data...

Two independent Manifold markets suggest Microsoft is increasingly expected to adopt nuclear power for its data centers.

spilloverAMZNGOOGLORCL
window 60devidence 4MSFT $496.88 / 45d n/a
2026-08-10·MSFT·power ppa
not priced inlowneutral

Manifold markets put a 36.36% probability on Microsoft powering a data center with an SMR by 2030 and a 27.48%...

Manifold markets put a 36.36% probability on Microsoft powering a data center with an SMR by 2030 and a 27.48% probability on Microsoft running at least one data center on a self-operated fission reactor before 2030.

spilloverORCLGOOGLNVDA
window 90devidence 4MSFT $496.88 / 45d n/a
2026-08-10·MSFT·revenue concentration risk
not priced inlowdown

Microsoft's 10-K filed 2026-07-29 shows revenue of $245.1B, net income of $88.1B, and total assets of $619.0B,...

Microsoft's 10-K filed 2026-07-29 shows revenue of $245.1B, net income of $88.1B, and total assets of $619.0B, confirming a large and profitable AI-era financial base (SEC XBRL).

spilloverNVDAORCL
window 30devidence 38MSFT $496.88 / 45d n/a
2026-08-09·MSFT·ai revenue concentration
not priced inlowdown

A Hacker News post ( points to a Windows Central report stating that Microsoft's regulatory filings suggest around 70%...

A Hacker News post ( points to a Windows Central report stating that Microsoft's regulatory filings suggest around 70% of its AI revenue is concentrated on OpenAI.

spilloverORCLNVDAAMZNGOOGL
window 45devidence 38MSFT $496.88 / 45d n/a
2026-08-08·MSFT·revenue concentration risk
not priced inlowdown

Microsoft's FY2026 10-K (filed 2026-07-29) reports $245.1B revenue and $88.1B net income, but a Windows Central...

Microsoft's FY2026 10-K (filed 2026-07-29) reports $245.1B revenue and $88.1B net income, but a Windows Central analysis of Microsoft filings, flagged on Hacker News, says roughly 70% of Microsoft's AI revenue is concentrated on OpenAI.

spilloverNVDAAMZNGOOGL
window 60devidence 42MSFT $496.88 / 45d n/a
2026-08-06·MSFT·power ppa
not priced inmedneutral

Two Manifold markets assess Microsoft's future power sources.

Two Manifold markets assess Microsoft's future power sources.

window 90devidence 4MSFT $496.88 / 45d n/a
2026-08-06·MSFT·supply chain disruption
not priced inlowdown

Tom's Hardware reports that Microsoft has quietly removed 32GB RAM configuration recommendations from its website and...

Tom's Hardware reports that Microsoft has quietly removed 32GB RAM configuration recommendations from its website and has released Surface laptops with 8GB base models this year, explicitly tying the decision to the ongoing memory shortage.

spilloverAAPL
window 60devidence 94MSFT $496.88 / 45d n/a
2026-08-05·MSFT·data center announcement
not priced inlowneutral

The DataCenterDynamics article ( reports that Microsoft has detailed plans for a data center in Langley, UK.

The DataCenterDynamics article ( reports that Microsoft has detailed plans for a data center in Langley, UK.

spilloverNVDATSMAVGOMRVL
window 60devidence 45MSFT $496.88 / 45d n/a
2026-08-04·MSFT·power ppa
not priced inlowneutral

Two Manifold markets indicate modest but non-trivial odds that Microsoft will adopt nuclear power for its data centers:...

Two Manifold markets indicate modest but non-trivial odds that Microsoft will adopt nuclear power for its data centers: 36.36% for SMRs by 2030 and 27.48% for a self-operated fission reactor before 2030.

spilloverAMZNGOOGLORCL
window 60devidence 4MSFT $496.88 / 45d n/a
2026-08-03·MSFT·power ppa
partly pricedlowup

Two Manifold markets indicate growing trader conviction that Microsoft will add nuclear power to its data center mix:...

Two Manifold markets indicate growing trader conviction that Microsoft will add nuclear power to its data center mix: Will Microsoft power its data center with SMR(Small Modular Reactor) by 2030? is at 36.36% YES, and Will Microsoft have at least one data center (partially)...

spilloverAMZNGOOGL
window 60devidence 4MSFT $496.88 / 45d n/a
2026-08-03·MSFT·earnings surprise
partly pricedmedup

Signal: MSFT FY2026 earnings beat, Azure acceleration and record backlog point to sustained AI infrastructure demand

Microsoft filed its FY2026 10-K on July 29, 2026, reporting revenue of $245.1B, net income of $88.1B, assets of $619B, and liabilities of $275.5B (SEC XBRL).

spilloverNVDAAMDTSMAVGOMRVLCRWV
window 10devidence 38MSFT $496.88 / 45d n/a
2026-08-02·MSFT·earnings surprise
partly pricedhighup

Microsoft's FY26 Q4 earnings delivered a major upside surprise, with Azure growing 39% year-over-year and Microsoft...

Microsoft's FY26 Q4 earnings delivered a major upside surprise, with Azure growing 39% year-over-year and Microsoft Cloud revenue exceeding $51.5 billion for the first time, according to Livemint.

spilloverNVDAAMDAVGOMRVLTSMAMZN
window 10devidence 90MSFT $496.88 / 45d n/a
2026-08-01·MSFT·nuclear data center power
not priced inlowneutral

Manifold markets show meaningful but not decisive odds that Microsoft will adopt nuclear power for data centers: 36.36%...

Manifold markets show meaningful but not decisive odds that Microsoft will adopt nuclear power for data centers: 36.36% for an SMR-powered data center by 2030 and 27.48% for at least one data center partially powered by a self-operated fission reactor before 2030.

spilloverORCLGOOGLAMZN
window 60devidence 4MSFT $496.88 / 45d n/a
2026-08-01·MSFT·capex change hyperscaler
partly pricedhighup

Microsoft's fiscal Q4 2026 results (10-K filed 2026-07-29) show FY2026 revenue of $245.1B and net income of $88.1B,...

Microsoft's fiscal Q4 2026 results (10-K filed 2026-07-29) show FY2026 revenue of $245.1B and net income of $88.1B, with The Next Platform reporting Q4 revenue of ~$90B (+17.7% YoY) and net income of $35.77B (+31.3%).

spilloverNVDAAMDTSMAVGOMRVL
window 45devidence 89MSFT $496.88 / 45d n/a
2026-07-31·MSFT·power ppa
not priced inlowneutral

Prediction markets show non-trivial probabilities that Microsoft will use nuclear power for data centers by 2030.

Prediction markets show non-trivial probabilities that Microsoft will use nuclear power for data centers by 2030.

spilloverGOOGLAMZN
window 60devidence 4MSFT $496.88 / 45d n/a
2026-07-30·MSFT·capex change hyperscaler
partly pricedhighup

Microsoft reported strong fiscal Q4 2026 results on July 29, 2026.

Microsoft reported strong fiscal Q4 2026 results on July 29, 2026.

spilloverNVDAAMDMRVLAVGOORCLAMZNGOOGL
window 45devidence 23MSFT $496.88 / 45d n/a