Prediction markets are signaling a growing probability that Apple will release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026, with a...

Prediction markets are signaling a growing probability that Apple will release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026, with a current consensus of 77.34% on Manifold Markets (source). Additionally, there is a 69.00% probability that Apple will announce a major AI model partnership at WWDC 2026 (source). These speculative indicators, while unconfirmed, suggest Apple's increasing focus on on-device AI and potential chip development. If realized, this could strengthen Apple's competitive position in edge AI and drive demand for TSMC's advanced packaging, given Apple's reliance on TSMC for chip manufacturing. The high market probability indicates informed bettors anticipate material AI chip progress, which aligns with the AI-infra collection. However, as these are prediction market odds rather than official announcements, confidence remains low. Direction is up for Apple, as in-house AI silicon would reduce reliance on external suppliers and enhance iPhone capabilities.