Prediction market consensus on Manifold shows a 77.34% probability that Apple will release an AI chip for iPhones in...

Prediction market consensus on Manifold shows a 77.34% probability that Apple will release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026 (source 1). Additionally, there is a 75.38% probability that Apple will announce a major AI model partnership (e.g., OpenAI, Google, or Anthropic) at WWDC 2026 (source 2). These high probabilities reflect market sentiment that Apple is actively developing on-device AI capabilities and seeking external AI model partnerships. If realized, an Apple-designed AI chip would leverage TSMC's advanced process nodes for manufacturing (similar to existing A and M series chips) and could reduce reliance on third-party AI accelerators for inference on iPhone. The partnership signal suggests Apple may integrate third-party large language models rather than relying solely on its own models. While these are speculative market probabilities rather than confirmed corporate actions, the convergence of high-confidence bets indicates strong investor belief in Apple's AI roadmap. For semiconductor supply chain, any custom AI chip would increase wafer demand at TSMC, potentially benefiting TSMC's advanced packaging and N3/N2 nodes. Spillover effects may also affect Qualcomm if Apple's in-house AI chip replaces modem or other components. Given the speculative nature, confidence is low.