A prediction market on Manifold indicates a 77.34% probability that Apple will release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026...

A prediction market on Manifold indicates a 77.34% probability that Apple will release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026 (source). This high probability suggests growing market consensus that Apple is developing in-house AI silicon for its flagship smartphone, potentially reducing reliance on external suppliers like Qualcomm and Broadcom. The chip would likely be fabricated by TSMC, reinforcing their advanced process node leadership. While the source is a prediction market rather than an official announcement, the shift from speculation to near-certainty reflects a material change in expected competitive dynamics for edge AI hardware. For Apple, this strengthens its vertical integration and positions it favorably against Android rivals using off-the-shelf AI chips. The signal is low confidence due to the speculative nature of prediction markets, but the probability level warrants monitoring for near-term developments.