Multiple prediction market questions on Manifold Markets indicate strong consensus that ASML will retain its monopoly...

Multiple prediction market questions on Manifold Markets indicate strong consensus that ASML will retain its monopoly in EUV lithography. As of June 12, 2026, the probability of ASML remaining the world's only producer of EUV machines until end of 2026 is 81.77% source 1, and until end of 2027 is 69.43% source 3. The probability of ASML's revenue increasing every year for the next 5 years is 83.77% source 2. Meanwhile, the chance of China inventing a domestic version by 2030 stands at 56.45% source 5, suggesting limited near-term competition. These figures, while based on crowd-sourced forecasts rather than official statements, point to sustained market dominance and revenue growth for ASML. The monopoly status benefits ASML's pricing power and reinforces its critical role in advanced semiconductor manufacturing, with spillover effects on key customers like TSMC, Samsung, and Intel.