Multiple prediction market questions on Manifold Markets indicate strong consensus that ASML will retain its EUV...

Multiple prediction market questions on Manifold Markets indicate strong consensus that ASML will retain its EUV monopoly and achieve consistent revenue growth. As of June 2026, the probability of ASML being the world's only EUV producer through 2026 is 81.77% (source), and through 2027 it is 69.43% (source). The chance of revenue increasing every year for five years is 83.77% (source). Meanwhile, the probability of China inventing a domestic EUV machine by 2030 is only 56.45% (source), and the chance of evidence of an EUV sale to China in 2023 is just 6.28% (source). These consensus probabilities, though from a single prediction market platform, collectively suggest continued technological and market leadership for ASML, which is critical for advanced semiconductor manufacturing in the AI infrastructure supply chain.