Multiple prediction market questions on Manifold Markets indicate a strong consensus that ASML will remain the world's...

Multiple prediction market questions on Manifold Markets indicate a strong consensus that ASML will remain the world's sole producer of EUV lithography machines through at least 2026, and likely through 2027. Specifically, as of May 29, 2026, the market gives an 81.77% probability that ASML remains the only EUV producer until end of 2026 (source 1), and a 69.43% probability for end of 2027 (source 2). Another market assigns a 96.17% probability that ASML was a monopoly in EUV by end of 2024 (source 3). Additionally, there is only a 6.28% chance that ASML sold any EUV machine to China in 2023 (source 4). These predictions, while based on betting markets rather than official statements, suggest sustained competitive advantage for ASML and continued export restrictions preventing China from obtaining EUV tools. This reinforces ASML's pricing power and order backlog, while implying ongoing supply constraints for advanced nodes at foundries like TSMC, Samsung, and Intel. The low probability of China sales further underscores geopolitical headwinds for SMIC. For AI chipmakers like NVIDIA and AMD, ASML's monopoly means continued reliance on a single supplier for critical infrastructure. The signal is medium confidence due to the probabilistic nature of prediction markets and lack of direct corporate confirmation.