Multiple prediction markets on Manifold Markets indicate that ASML is expected to remain the sole producer of EUV...

Multiple prediction markets on Manifold Markets indicate that ASML is expected to remain the sole producer of EUV lithography machines well into the future. As of the latest market close (2026-05-27), the probability of ASML being the only EUV producer through 2024 was 96.17% (source), through 2026 it was 81.77% (source), and through 2027 it was 69.43% (source). Additionally, the probability of ASML selling any EUV machines to China in 2023 was only 6.28% (source), reflecting persistent export restrictions. These consensus estimates, while derived from prediction markets and not official statements, reinforce ASML's entrenched competitive position and pricing power in advanced lithography. The implied monopoly durability supports ASML's revenue visibility from leading-edge chipmakers (TSMC, Samsung, Intel, SK Hynix, Micron, NVIDIA) and underscores the lack of near-term competitive threats. For China (SMIC), the continued denial of EUV tools constrains their advanced node development. Given the single source type and its speculative nature, confidence is low, but the signal is directionally positive for ASML's market position.