Prediction market Manifold Markets shows a 96.54% probability that Tesla will announce a formal partnership with Intel...

Prediction market Manifold Markets shows a 96.54% probability that Tesla will announce a formal partnership with Intel for AI chip fabrication by June 30, 2026 (source: Manifold). This high consensus suggests a strong likelihood of a significant foundry deal for Intel, bolstering its foundry business and positioning it to supply AI chips for Tesla. If announced, this would be a major win for Intel's foundry ambitions, potentially diverting some AI chip manufacturing away from TSMC and competitors like AMD and NVIDIA. The probability is based on market participant forecasts, reflecting a collective view of near-certainty. Intel's stock and sector position could benefit from this partnership, which aligns with the US push for domestic chip manufacturing. Other prediction markets on Intel manufacturing NVIDIA chips (27% chance) and a TSMC-Intel joint venture (48.73%) are less decisive but add context to Intel's foundry strategy. The imminent timeline (by June 30) makes this a high-impact signal for INTC and the AI infrastructure supply chain.