A prediction market on Manifold Markets (source) as of 2026-05-29 shows a 56.45% probability that China will develop a...

A prediction market on Manifold Markets (source) as of 2026-05-29 shows a 56.45% probability that China will develop a domestic version of ASML's EUV lithographic machine by January 1, 2030. This consensus reflects growing speculative confidence in China's ability to bypass export restrictions and achieve self-sufficiency in advanced lithography. While not an actual announcement or breakthrough, such prediction markets aggregate trader expectations and can signal shifting sentiment. If realized, this could erode ASML's monopoly and reshape the semiconductor equipment supply chain, affecting capital expenditure plans and technology roadmaps. However, the signal is low confidence due to the speculative nature and single source.