EUV Lithography
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market consensus 10prediction-market quotes (latest)
- 56%Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?manifold$250
- 56%Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?manifold$250
- 56%Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?manifold$250
- 56%Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?manifold$250
- 56%Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?manifold$250
- 56%Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?manifold$250
- 56%Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?manifold$250
- 56%Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?manifold$250
- 56%Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?manifold$250
- 56%Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?manifold$250
recent signals
A prediction market on Manifold Markets (source) as of 2026-05-29 shows a 56.45% probability that China will develop a...
A prediction market on Manifold Markets (source) as of 2026-05-29 shows a 56.45% probability that China will develop a domestic version of ASML's EUV lithographic machine by January 1, 2030.
As of May 26, 2026, a prediction market on Manifold Markets indicates a 56.45% probability that China will develop a...
As of May 26, 2026, a prediction market on Manifold Markets indicates a 56.45% probability that China will develop a domestic version of ASML's EUV lithography machine by January 1, 2030 (source).
On May 25, 2026, the prediction market Manifold showed a 56.45% consensus that China will invent a domestic version of...
On May 25, 2026, the prediction market Manifold showed a 56.45% consensus that China will invent a domestic version of ASML's EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030.
As of May 25, 2026, the prediction market Manifold shows a 56.45% probability that China will invent a domestic version...
As of May 25, 2026, the prediction market Manifold shows a 56.45% probability that China will invent a domestic version of ASML's EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030.
A prediction market on Manifold Markets estimates a 56.45% probability that China will invent a domestic version of...
A prediction market on Manifold Markets estimates a 56.45% probability that China will invent a domestic version of ASML's EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030 (source: Manifold Markets).
A prediction market on Manifold Markets estimates a 56.45% probability that China will develop a domestic version of...
A prediction market on Manifold Markets estimates a 56.45% probability that China will develop a domestic version of ASML's EUV lithography machine by 2030 (source: Manifold Markets).
A prediction market on Manifold Markets (source) estimates a 56.45% probability that China will invent a domestic...
A prediction market on Manifold Markets (source) estimates a 56.45% probability that China will invent a domestic version of ASML's EUV lithography machine by January 1, 2030.
On 2026-05-23, the prediction market Manifold Markets showed a consensus of 56.45% on the question 'Will China invent a...
On 2026-05-23, the prediction market Manifold Markets showed a consensus of 56.45% on the question 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?' (Source: Manifold Markets).
A prediction market on Manifold Markets ( currently assigns a 56.45% probability to China inventing a domestic version...
A prediction market on Manifold Markets ( currently assigns a 56.45% probability to China inventing a domestic version of ASML's EUV lithography machine by January 1, 2030.
A prediction market on Manifold Markets as of 2026-05-22 shows a 56.45% consensus that China will develop a domestic...
A prediction market on Manifold Markets as of 2026-05-22 shows a 56.45% consensus that China will develop a domestic version of ASML's EUV lithography machine by 2030 (source).
On 2026-05-21, Manifold Markets consensus on the question 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV...
On 2026-05-21, Manifold Markets consensus on the question 'Will China invent a domestic version of ASML’s EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030?' reached 56.45% YES (source).
A prediction market on Manifold Markets indicates a 56.45% probability that China will develop a domestic version of...
A prediction market on Manifold Markets indicates a 56.45% probability that China will develop a domestic version of ASML's EUV lithographic machine tool by January 1, 2030 (source: Manifold Markets).
TSMC's decision to refuse ASML's expensive High-NA EUV equipment, as reported by Digitimes, suggests a potential...
TSMC's decision to refuse ASML's expensive High-NA EUV equipment, as reported by Digitimes, suggests a potential slowdown in adopting next-gen lithography technology.
Reports from both India and United States sources indicate that China's ambitions to develop EUV lithography technology...
Reports from both India and United States sources indicate that China's ambitions to develop EUV lithography technology are unlikely to materialize within this decade.
Multiple sources report that Imec has demonstrated a new technique involving oxygen injection during the metal-oxide...
Multiple sources report that Imec has demonstrated a new technique involving oxygen injection during the metal-oxide resist post-exposure bake process, significantly reducing EUV lithography dose requirements and improving throughput.