TSMC's decision to refuse ASML's expensive High-NA EUV equipment, as reported by Digitimes, suggests a potential...

TSMC's decision to refuse ASML's expensive High-NA EUV equipment, as reported by Digitimes, suggests a potential slowdown in adopting next-gen lithography technology. This refusal could impact TSMC's capacity to produce advanced chips, potentially affecting their competitive edge. ASML's own communications highlight their role in enabling chipmakers to push technology limits, but TSMC's decision indicates a reluctance to invest in this specific technology at this time (ASML). Additionally, the Manifold consensus suggests a growing possibility of China developing a domestic EUV machine tool by 2030, which could further pressure ASML's market position if TSMC and others delay adoption of ASML's technology (Manifold). The bear case is supported by TSMC's refusal and the potential for increased competition from China, indicating a 'down' signal for LITHO.