Two independent Manifold markets suggest Microsoft is increasingly expected to adopt nuclear power for its data...

Two independent Manifold markets suggest Microsoft is increasingly expected to adopt nuclear power for its data centers. One market, asking whether Microsoft will power its data center with small modular reactors (SMRs) by 2030, trades at 36.36% YES (source). A second market, on whether Microsoft will operate at least one data center partially powered by a self-operated fission reactor before 2030, is at 27.48% YES (source). These probabilities indicate a nontrivial market expectation of Microsoft moving beyond traditional PPA contracts into SMR and on-site fission. Such moves would address AI data center power constraints and could influence Microsoft's capex allocation toward nuclear tech. The bullish reading: Microsoft is positioning for firm 24/7 clean power to support AI workloads. The bearish reading: probabilities still below 50%, so nuclear adoption is far from certain. Direction for Microsoft is positive (energy security), but the signal is speculative.

What the sources said

• "Will Microsoft power its data center with SMR(Small Modular Reactor) by 2030?" — 36.36% YES (Manifold).
• "Will Microsoft have at least one data center (partially) powered by a self-operated fission reactor before 2030?" — 27.48% YES (Manifold).