Microsoft's FY2026 10-K (filed 2026-07-29) reports $245.1B revenue and $88.1B net income, but a Windows Central...
Microsoft's FY2026 10-K (filed 2026-07-29) reports $245.1B revenue and $88.1B net income, but a Windows Central analysis of Microsoft filings, flagged on Hacker News, says roughly 70% of Microsoft's AI revenue is concentrated on OpenAI.
confidence score
Strong evidence: 7 independent source classes support this read.
MSFT has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
Microsoft's FY2026 10-K (filed 2026-07-29) reports $245.1B revenue and $88.1B net income, but a Windows Central analysis of Microsoft filings, flagged on Hacker News, says roughly 70% of Microsoft's AI revenue is concentrated on OpenAI. This is a material concentration signal for AI-infrastructure watchers: Microsoft's AI monetization is now tightly coupled to OpenAI's continued growth and demand for compute.
What the sources said:
- "Microsoft filings suggest 'around 70%' of its AI revenue is concentrated entirely on OpenAI" — https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49198884
- "10-K filed 2026-07-29: revenue 245122000000; net_income 88136000000" — https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000789019.json
Why it matters: The concentration cuts both ways. Bull case: OpenAI's explosive compute demand keeps Microsoft Azure and Nvidia GPUs busy, and the partnership drives AI revenue growth. Bear case: if OpenAI shifts workload allocation, renegotiates terms, or faces regulatory/competitive pressure, Microsoft's AI revenue is directly exposed. The disclosure also raises questions about Microsoft's negotiating leverage and could push it to diversify its own model portfolio or accelerate in-house silicon efforts. Spillover: Nvidia depends on OpenAI/ Microsoft AI capex; AWS and Google Cloud could benefit if enterprise customers or OpenAI workloads diversify away from Azure.
source data used
“assets: 619003000000 (10-K filed 2026-07-29) common_stock_capital: 109095000000 (10-K filed 2026-07-29) liabilities: 275524000000 (10-K filed 2026-07-29) net_income: 88136000000 (10-K filed 2026-07-29) revenue: 245122000000 (10-K filed 2026-07-29)”
“Points: 49 | Comments: 12 Author: speckx Link: https://www.windowscentral.com/artificial-intelligence/microsoft-filings-suggest-around-70-percent-of-its-ai-revenue-is-concentrated-entirely-on-openai Microsoft filings suggest "around 70%" of its AI revenue is on OpenAI”
“Score: 1 | Answers: 0 | Views: 69 Tags: azure, authentication, azure-functions, microsoft-entra-id How can I use Microsoft Entra on a GitHub Page for an Azure Function?”
“Rank 32 on Top Free. Developer: Microsoft Corporation. Genre: Productivity, Utilities.”
“Rank 46 on Top Free. Developer: Microsoft Corporation. Genre: Business, Productivity.”
“Rank 49 on Top Free. Developer: Microsoft Corporation. Genre: Productivity, Business.”
“5★ review of Microsoft Copilot: It's a really good tool for educating myself.”
“5★ review of Microsoft Copilot: I’ve been using this app for a while, and I’m really impressed with how helpful it is. I explained a few hazardous situations from my workplace, and the app understood everything...”
“1★ review of Microsoft Copilot: too big of a moron. would give 0 stars if it counted as a rating.”
“5★ review of Microsoft Copilot: best ever ai app found from Google pay store recommended to use by every body for their work it may be school ,college or in any work place .”
“5★ review of Microsoft Copilot: The answers are quick & straight to the point. It gives multiple responses for the same question which gives options. Also adds additional information which may be previously unknown. Already my...”
“4★ review of Microsoft Copilot: good app”
“5★ review of Microsoft Copilot: I'm in love”
“5★ review of Microsoft Copilot: I am thrilled the AI tool is highly effective for professionals particular from academic field. great. keep it up”
“5★ review of Microsoft Copilot: great help in my everyday”
“5★ review of Microsoft Copilot: goof”
“5★ review of Microsoft Copilot: Really helped me navigate a complex situation in my life and career”
“5★ review of Microsoft Copilot: copilots the og of ai period! of course Android comes with Google and Gemini, but just simply download the co-pilot app from playstore. 9 out of 10 people have Windows 11...”
“5★ review of Microsoft Copilot: very good”
“5★ review of Microsoft Copilot: actually you make me very interesting since you provide very accurate answers 🙏”
“5★ review of Microsoft Copilot: I absolutely love it no complaints 😁😁”
“3★ review of Microsoft Copilot: it work good”
“5★ review of Microsoft Copilot: That's Amazing”
“2★ review of Microsoft Copilot: Good but too sneaky and backhanded. not transparent about error rate and getting things plain wrong. consistently hallucinates facts, answers, and so on; all the while pretending to be human when...”
“5★ review of Microsoft Copilot: 99.9%🤙”
“1★ review of Microsoft Copilot: bekar aap ha”
“1★ review of Microsoft Copilot: Guys, never install this app, this app gave me anger for the next 3 weeks, this app made me lose control, never install this app, seriously, don't, one time, 3 years...”
“5★ review of Microsoft Copilot: Banyak membantu saya dlm menguruskan perniagaan saya. Sangat2 membantu..”
“5★ review of Microsoft Copilot: good”
“5★ review of Microsoft Copilot: 幾多用如果講粵語最好啲就正”
“5★ review of Microsoft Copilot: Practice. Learn prompts. Teach bots. And someone please locate Sarah Connor.”
“5★ review of Microsoft Copilot: ok”
“5★ review of Microsoft Copilot: عاااالی”
“5★ review of Microsoft Copilot: 🤩🤩🤩🤩”
“3★ review of Microsoft Copilot: good”
“5★ review of Microsoft Copilot: I love it 🤩”
- https://www.theregister.com/applications/2026/08/07/microsoft-tosses-teams-live-chat-into-its-feature-graveyard/5284634
- https://www.theregister.com/security/2026/08/07/ieh-corp-says-phished-staffer-opened-gates-to-company-m365/5284523
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Microsoft power its data center with SMR(Small Modular Reactor) by 2030?': YES=36.36%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Microsoft have at least one data center (partially) powered by a self-operated fission reactor before 2030?': YES=27.48%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will MSFT acquire/merge with OpenAI by the end of 2027?': YES=20.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'In 2024, will OpenAI/Microsoft confirm plans to build a supercomputer like the rumored $100 billion "Stargate"?': YES=4.57%”
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.