Two Manifold prediction markets reflect growing investor expectations that Microsoft will deploy nuclear power for its...

Two Manifold prediction markets reflect growing investor expectations that Microsoft will deploy nuclear power for its data centers. The SMR market sits at 36.36% for Microsoft powering a data center with small modular reactors by 2030 (source), and the self-operated fission market at 27.48% for a partially reactor-powered data center before 2030 (source). These are early-stage, confidence-weighted indicators of Microsoft moving beyond conventional PPAs into on-site nuclear generation, a strategic hedge against grid constraints for AI compute. A related Stargate supercomputer confirmation market is low at 4.57% (source), suggesting the $100B supercomputer rumor remains speculative but not dead. The combined picture is that Microsoft is likely to pursue nuclear-backed data center power, which would have spillover effects on nuclear technology providers, grid infrastructure, and hyperscale competitors such as Oracle and Amazon also exploring nuclear options.

What the sources said:

• "Will Microsoft power its data center with SMR(Small Modular Reactor) by 2030?" — YES=36.36% (Manifold)
• "Will Microsoft have at least one data center (partially) powered by a self-operated fission reactor before 2030?" — YES=27.48% (Manifold)
• "In 2024, will OpenAI/Microsoft confirm plans to build a supercomputer like the rumored $100 billion 'Stargate'?" — YES=4.57% (Manifold)