Two Manifold markets indicate modest but non-trivial odds that Microsoft will adopt nuclear power for its data centers:...

Two Manifold markets indicate modest but non-trivial odds that Microsoft will adopt nuclear power for its data centers: 36.36% for SMRs by 2030 and 27.48% for a self-operated fission reactor before 2030. While not high-confidence bets, these figures suggest the market sees a real possibility of Microsoft securing dedicated nuclear power, which would be a major power-PPA move influencing hyperscale data center buildouts and competing with other cloud providers pursuing the same strategy. The two markets are distinct, but they both point to a plausible power strategy shift. If Microsoft were to add SMRs or fission-based generation into its portfolio, it would reduce exposure to grid constraints and potentially lower long-term power costs, while also creating a new vendor ecosystem for small modular reactor developers. However, the probabilities are still below 50%, so the market's base case is that Microsoft will continue to rely on conventional renewables and grid power for the foreseeable future. The low absolute probabilities keep this a low-confidence signal; the direction is neutral until an actual PPA or reactor plan is confirmed.

What the sources said:

• Manifold market: "Will Microsoft power its data center with SMR(Small Modular Reactor) by 2030?" consensus YES=36.36%.
• Manifold market: "Will Microsoft have at least one data center (partially) powered by a self-operated fission reactor before 2030?" consensus YES=27.48%.