Prediction-market consensus on Manifold dated 2026-08-12 puts only 15.34% odds on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top...
Prediction-market consensus on Manifold dated 2026-08-12 puts only 15.34% odds on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?' and 19.00% odds on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?' (source 1, source 12).
confidence score
Strong evidence: 1 independent source class support this read.
NVDA has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
Prediction-market consensus on Manifold dated 2026-08-12 puts only 15.34% odds on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?' and 19.00% odds on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?' (source 1, source 12). Traders also assign 85.99% probability to the bearish scenario that 'China's AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia' (source 11) and 72.90% probability a serious competitor to NVIDIA in AI chips emerges by EOY 2027 (source 19). These probabilities are not fundamentals, but they are a concise aggregation of trader expectations that the current China export restrictions on Nvidia's top GPUs will persist through the next several quarters, and that Chinese domestic AI chips will continue to close the gap. For NVDA, a longer China ban means a permanently smaller addressable market in the world's second-largest AI economy, and strengthens the case for domestic substitution in China — a negative for Nvidia's revenue ceiling and longer-term share. The same dynamic is positive for Chinese domestic competitors and for AMD/other Western vendors only if they also get export relief, which the B30A market at 19% does not suggest. Low confidence because Manifold probabilities are speculative retail/market-based signals of sentiment, not corporate guidance or regulatory filings. The direction is 'down' relative to Nvidia's prior ability to sell top GPUs into China, even though NVDA's overall share-price odds remain high (96.96% all-time-high in 2026; source 8). What the sources said: 'YES=15.34%' for resuming top-GPU sales to China; 'YES=19.00%' for B30A allowed to China; 'YES=85.99%' that China's AI chip sector makes significant strides planting seeds for Nvidia's eventual decline.
source data used
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=15.34%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close higher on August 31?': YES=59.67%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%”
“Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=6.83%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%”
“Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=85.99%”
“Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=8.47%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=18.07%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=48.34%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%”
“Manifold consensus on 'A plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027': YES=8.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap at the end of 2025?': YES=99.24%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will a serious competitor to NVIDIA in the AI chip space emerge before EOY 2027?': YES=72.90%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the purchase of 3k NVIDIA H100 chips through Saudi's KAUST lead to a functional form of generative AI by June 2024?': YES=14.86%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC exceed Nvidia in market capitalization at any point before 2032?': YES=36.95%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia announce an intention to acquire a controlling stake in TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=5.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will China develop domestic GPU with comparable performance to NVIDIA H100 by 2026?': YES=24.55%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia still retain over 50% market share of PC gamer GPU usage by 2030': YES=61.92%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia launch an RTX 5090 Ti, Titan, or equivalent flagship GPU before 2028?': YES=46.00%”
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.