Manifold prediction-market probabilities as of Aug 3, 2026 cluster around a durable US-China export wall on NVIDIA's...
Manifold prediction-market probabilities as of Aug 3, 2026 cluster around a durable US-China export wall on NVIDIA's top GPUs.
confidence score
Strong evidence: 1 independent source class support this read.
NVDA has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
Manifold prediction-market probabilities as of Aug 3, 2026 cluster around a durable US-China export wall on NVIDIA's top GPUs. Traders give only an 11.08% chance NVDA resumes selling flagship GPUs to China by April 1, 2027 (Source 7), and just a 19.00% chance the China-specific B30A SKU is allowed by 2027 (Source 13). In parallel, 74.92% expect China's domestic AI chip sector to make significant strides that plant seeds for an eventual decline on Nvidia (Source 9); 18.07% expect any China-domestic chip to reach ≥80% of H100 benchmark performance by end-2026 (Source 15); 24.55% see a China GPU matching H100-class performance by 2026 (Source 24); and 72.9% see a serious AI-chip competitor emerging before EOY 2027 (Source 19). As a secondary datapoint, H100 compute prices are heavily expected to remain below $3.50/hr on Nov 6 (3.48% YES, Source 4), implying soft GPU-cloud pricing that squeezes the surrounding ecosystem.
Bear case: NVDA's China revenue stays capped through 2027 while domestic Chinese champions scale; hyperscaler custom silicon and AMD continue to erode share. Bull case: markets still price NVDA as a near-certain all-time-high maker in 2026 (96.96%, Source 8), and China has been a small revenue slice since the 2023 restrictions. Since these are prediction-market probabilities, not confirmed policy events, direction is a cautious down for NVDA's China and competitive outlook over the next several quarters.
What the sources said
- 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?' — YES = 11.08% (Source 7)
- 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?' — YES = 19.00% (Source 13)
- "China's AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia" — YES = 74.92% (Source 9)
- 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?' — YES = 18.07% (Source 15)
source data used
“Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=1.01%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%”
“Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%”
“Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.04%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%”
“Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=10.08%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=18.07%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%”
“Manifold consensus on 'A plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027': YES=8.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap at the end of 2025?': YES=99.24%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will a serious competitor to NVIDIA in the AI chip space emerge before EOY 2027?': YES=72.90%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the purchase of 3k NVIDIA H100 chips through Saudi's KAUST lead to a functional form of generative AI by June 2024?': YES=14.86%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC exceed Nvidia in market capitalization at any point before 2032?': YES=36.95%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia announce an intention to acquire a controlling stake in TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=5.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will NVDA own >1% of OpenAI's Public Benefit Corp at EOY 2026?': YES=76.10%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will China develop domestic GPU with comparable performance to NVIDIA H100 by 2026?': YES=24.55%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia still retain over 50% market share of PC gamer GPU usage by 2030': YES=61.92%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia launch an RTX 5090 Ti, Titan, or equivalent flagship GPU before 2028?': YES=46.00%”
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.