As of June 2, 2026, prediction markets on Manifold Markets show extremely bullish consensus on Nvidia's near-term...
As of June 2, 2026, prediction markets on Manifold Markets show extremely bullish consensus on Nvidia's near-term prospects.
confidence score
Usable evidence: enough corroboration to publish, with 1 independent source class.
NVDA has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
As of June 2, 2026, prediction markets on Manifold Markets show extremely bullish consensus on Nvidia's near-term prospects. There is a 96.96% probability that Nvidia shares will hit a new all-time high in 2026 (source 15), and a 59.1% probability that FY2028 revenue will exceed $400B (source 10). Additionally, the market assigns 90.73% probability to Nvidia maintaining at least 75% data center market share through 2025 (source 26) and 78.85% through 2026 (source 27). These probabilities indicate strong investor confidence in Nvidia's dominant position and growth trajectory, driven by sustained AI infrastructure demand. The consensus suggests no near-term competitive disruption, despite 71.67% probability of a serious competitor emerging by 2027 (source 19). Overall, the signal points to continued outperformance.
source data used
- https://manifold.markets/ShaneBo/will-nvidia-announce-that-vera-rubi
- https://manifold.markets/NoaNabeshima/will-nvidia-resume-selling-its-top
- https://manifold.markets/ManiPart/nvidia-stock-300-or-higher-in-2026
- https://manifold.markets/JamesSanders/nvidia-allowed-to-sell-b30a-to-chin
- https://manifold.markets/CampbellHutcheson/nvidia-will-compete-at-the-foundati
- https://manifold.markets/DaftPunkRock/will-nvidia-outperform-the-sp-500-i-dU686UUClg
- https://manifold.markets/BabaGhanoush/china-arranges-for-permanent-iran-p
- https://manifold.markets/Hevel/will-nvidia-close-the-day-in-green-ZSug89q5uZ
- https://manifold.markets/WayneNelmsE0t9/nvidia-h100-compute-prices-above-35-SI0tPcLpZp
- https://manifold.markets/Simon74fe/will-nvidia-fy2028-feb-2027-jan-202
- https://manifold.markets/ManiPart/will-nvidia-have-the-highest-market-U0csqsuzPh
- https://manifold.markets/_M_/will-champion1024-get-a-girlfriend
- https://manifold.markets/JTX/will-nvidia-nvda-stock-drop-more-th
- https://manifold.markets/DaftPunkRock/acx-2026-will-nvidias-stock-price-c
- https://manifold.markets/Simon74fe/nvidia-shares-to-hit-new-high-in-20-n9zn8C02ld
- https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/3-chinas-ai-chip-sector-make-signif
- https://manifold.markets/ChristopherBerzins/will-any-chinadomestic-ai-chip-reac
- https://manifold.markets/cash/will-jensen-huang-cease-to-be-ceo-o-EAztPCE5CC
- https://manifold.markets/SimranRahman/will-a-serious-competitor-to-nvidia
- https://manifold.markets/Ernie/a-plane-carrying-nvidia-ai-chips-fo
- https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-nvidia-announce-an-intention-t
- https://manifold.markets/NoaNabeshima/if-china-invades-taiwan-will-the-ra
- https://manifold.markets/winged_one/will-nvidia-launch-an-rtx-5090-ti-t
- https://manifold.markets/JankoPrester/will-china-develop-domestic-gpu-wit
- https://manifold.markets/Wired/will-nvidia-still-retain-over-50-ma
- https://manifold.markets/_deleted_/will-nvidia-maintain-a-75-of-the-da
- https://manifold.markets/_deleted_/will-nvidia-maintain-a-75-of-the-da-e04d5718fa56
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
score history
| window | return | outcome |
|---|---|---|
| 30d | — | pending |