Prediction market consensus from August 2, 2026 indicates traders assign only 11% probability that Nvidia resumes...
Prediction market consensus from August 2, 2026 indicates traders assign only 11% probability that Nvidia resumes selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027 (Source 7), and only 19% that Nvidia is allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027 (Source 13).
confidence score
Strong evidence: 1 independent source class support this read.
NVDA has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
Prediction market consensus from August 2, 2026 indicates traders assign only 11% probability that Nvidia resumes selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027 (Source 7), and only 19% that Nvidia is allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027 (Source 13). A separate market sees China's domestic AI chip sector making significant strides, with 74.92% YES on that outcome (Source 9). These markets are speculative, but the consistent low probabilities for renewed China access point to a persistent export-restriction overhang for Nvidia. The H100 compute price market (Source 4) at 3.48% YES for prices above $3.50 appears stale or mislabeled, offering no corroborating demand signal. Data points are crowd-sourced predictions rather than regulatory filings, so confidence is low; however, the direction is clear: continued restrictions are negative for Nvidia's China revenue and support the bear case on AI-chip export policy.
What the sources said:
- Source 7: "Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027? YES=11.08%"
- Source 13: "NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027? YES=19.00%"
- Source 9: "China's AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia YES=74.92%"
source data used
“Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=1.01%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%”
“Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%”
“Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.04%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%”
“Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=18.07%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=10.08%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%”
“Manifold consensus on 'A plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027': YES=8.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will a serious competitor to NVIDIA in the AI chip space emerge before EOY 2027?': YES=72.90%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will the purchase of 3k NVIDIA H100 chips through Saudi's KAUST lead to a functional form of generative AI by June 2024?': YES=14.86%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will TSMC exceed Nvidia in market capitalization at any point before 2032?': YES=36.95%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia announce an intention to acquire a controlling stake in TSMC by the end of 2024?': YES=5.00%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will China develop domestic GPU with comparable performance to NVIDIA H100 by 2026?': YES=24.55%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia still retain over 50% market share of PC gamer GPU usage by 2030': YES=61.92%”
“Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia launch an RTX 5090 Ti, Titan, or equivalent flagship GPU before 2028?': YES=46.00%”
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.