Prediction market Manifold Markets shows high probability for two key OpenAI milestones.

Prediction market Manifold Markets shows high probability for two key OpenAI milestones. As of 2026-05-31, the market assigns 93% probability to OpenAI designing and manufacturing a custom AI chip by 2030 (source). Additionally, the market gives 91.82% probability to OpenAI announcing a new GPT-5-level model before 1 July 2026 (source). Both indicate strong sentiment that OpenAI is advancing toward greater vertical integration in hardware and model capability. A custom chip would reduce reliance on NVIDIA and potentially reshape AI chip demand, while a new model would sustain or increase compute demand. These predictions, while not official confirmations, signal market expectations that could influence semiconductor supply chain dynamics. The evidence comes from a single prediction market platform, so confidence is low.