Prediction market odds on Manifold indicate low confidence in SMIC outcompeting TSMC by 2033 (18.8% YES) source 1, by...
Prediction market odds on Manifold indicate low confidence in SMIC outcompeting TSMC by 2033 (18.8% YES) source 1, by 2024 (4.61%) source 2, and by 2028 (15.39%) source 3. Additionally, the market sees only 11% chance SMIC achieves 3nm before 2026 source 4, and a 55.85% chance that key executive Liang Mong-Song leaves SMIC within five years source 5. These consensus probabilities suggest persistent competitive weakness and potential leadership departure, negative for SMIC's position versus TSMC.
0981.HK has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
Prediction market odds on Manifold indicate low confidence in SMIC outcompeting TSMC by 2033 (18.8% YES) source 1, by 2024 (4.61%) source 2, and by 2028 (15.39%) source 3. Additionally, the market sees only 11% chance SMIC achieves 3nm before 2026 source 4, and a 55.85% chance that key executive Liang Mong-Song leaves SMIC within five years source 5. These consensus probabilities suggest persistent competitive weakness and potential leadership departure, negative for SMIC's position versus TSMC.
evidence
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact-49aa07abdea3web
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufactweb
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact-13a6f53950b0web
- https://manifold.markets/ersatz/will-chinas-semiconductor-manufactuweb
- https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/will-liang-mongsong-work-at-a-semicweb
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.