Multiple prediction market questions on Manifold Markets suggest very low market belief in SMIC's near-term...
Multiple prediction market questions on Manifold Markets suggest very low market belief in SMIC's near-term competitiveness vs TSMC.
0981.HK has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
Multiple prediction market questions on Manifold Markets suggest very low market belief in SMIC's near-term competitiveness vs TSMC. As of June 2026, the consensus for SMIC outcompeting TSMC by end of 2024 is only 4.61% (source 1), by 2028 it is 15.39% (source 3), and by 2033 it is 18.80% (source 2). Furthermore, SMIC achieving 3nm before 2026 is priced at just 11% (source 4). Additionally, the probability that key executive Liang Mong-Song leaves SMIC for another semiconductor company within 5 years is 55.85% (source 5). These aggregated predictions indicate persistent doubts about SMIC's technological advancement and talent retention, pointing to a continued competitive disadvantage against TSMC and potentially limiting China's domestic semiconductor progress.
evidence
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufactweb
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact-49aa07abdea3web
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact-13a6f53950b0web
- https://manifold.markets/ersatz/will-chinas-semiconductor-manufactuweb
- https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/will-liang-mongsong-work-at-a-semicweb
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.