Multiple Manifold Markets prediction polls indicate low market belief in SMIC's ability to outcompete TSMC or achieve...

Multiple Manifold Markets prediction polls indicate low market belief in SMIC's ability to outcompete TSMC or achieve advanced nodes. For 'Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024?', consensus is 4.61% (source: https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact). For 2028 end, 15.39%; for 2033, 18.80%. Similarly, 'Will SMIC achieve 3nm chip generation before 2026?' stands at 11.00% (source: https://manifold.markets/ersatz/will-chinas-semiconductor-manufactu). Additionally, there is a 55.85% probability that key executive Liang Mong-Song leaves SMIC within 5 years (source: https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/will-liang-mongsong-work-at-a-semic). These aggregated probabilities, while speculative, suggest weak competitive positioning for SMIC relative to TSMC and limited near-term technical progress. This could negatively impact SMIC's market perception and long-term prospects, while benefiting TSMC as a leading foundry.