Multiple Manifold prediction markets suggest SMIC faces significant competitive challenges relative to TSMC.

Multiple Manifold prediction markets suggest SMIC faces significant competitive challenges relative to TSMC. As of mid-2026, the consensus probability that SMIC will outcompete TSMC by 2024 stands at just 4.61% (source 1). For longer horizons, the odds are only 15.39% by 2028 (source 3) and 18.80% by 2033 (source 2), indicating persistent doubt about SMIC's ability to close the gap. Separately, the probability of SMIC achieving 3nm before 2026 is only 11% (source 4). Additionally, there is a 55.85% chance that key technologist Liang Mong-Song will leave SMIC within five years (source 5), which would be a major blow to its R&D efforts. These aggregated predictions paint a bearish picture for SMIC's competitive standing, with implications for TSMC as the primary beneficiary. However, the evidence is based on speculative market bets, warranting low confidence.