Multiple Manifold prediction markets indicate low confidence that SMIC will close the technology gap with TSMC.

Multiple Manifold prediction markets indicate low confidence that SMIC will close the technology gap with TSMC. As of June 11, 2026, the probability SMIC outcompetes TSMC by 2024 is only 4.6%, by 2028 is 15.4%, and by 2033 is 18.8% (source, source, source). Additionally, the chance SMIC achieves 3nm before 2026 is only 11% (source). Key engineer Liang Mong-Song has a 55.9% probability of leaving SMIC within five years (source). While prediction markets are speculative, these aggregated bets reflect a prevailing view that SMIC faces severe technological and talent retention challenges, reinforcing a bearish outlook on its competitive position versus TSMC. This sentiment could weigh on SMIC's valuation and signal continued dependence on less advanced nodes, benefiting TSMC's market leadership.