Multiple prediction market questions on Manifold indicate extremely low probabilities for SMIC to outcompete TSMC or...
Multiple prediction market questions on Manifold indicate extremely low probabilities for SMIC to outcompete TSMC or achieve 3nm nodes by various deadlines.
0981.HK has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
Multiple prediction market questions on Manifold indicate extremely low probabilities for SMIC to outcompete TSMC or achieve 3nm nodes by various deadlines. As of June 2026, the consensus for SMIC outcompeting TSMC by end of 2024 is only 4.61% (source), by 2028 it is 15.39% (source), by 2033 it is 18.80% (source). Additionally, the probability of SMIC achieving 3nm before 2026 is only 11.00% (source). These low figures suggest bearish sentiment on SMIC's ability to close the technology gap with TSMC, potentially benefiting TSMC as the leading foundry. The data is from prediction markets, which are speculative but reflect aggregated trader expectations. This weak signal warrants low confidence but is aligned with semiconductor competitive dynamics.
evidence
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufactweb
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact-49aa07abdea3web
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact-13a6f53950b0web
- https://manifold.markets/ersatz/will-chinas-semiconductor-manufactuweb
- https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/will-liang-mongsong-work-at-a-semicweb
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.