Multiple prediction markets on Manifold indicate bearish sentiment for SMIC's technological competitiveness and talent...

Multiple prediction markets on Manifold indicate bearish sentiment for SMIC's technological competitiveness and talent retention. As of June 2026, the probability that SMIC will outcompete TSMC by 2033 is only 18.80% (source), and by 2028 it is 15.39% (source). The chance of achieving 3nm before 2026 is 11% (source). Additionally, there is a 55.85% probability that key executive Liang Mong-Song will leave SMIC within five years (source), posing a talent retention risk. While prediction markets are speculative, these odds suggest a market perception that SMIC will struggle to close the gap with TSMC, potentially impacting its long-term competitiveness and customer confidence.