Multiple prediction markets on Manifold indicate very low probabilities for SMIC catching up to TSMC in advanced...
Multiple prediction markets on Manifold indicate very low probabilities for SMIC catching up to TSMC in advanced semiconductor manufacturing.
0981.HK has not made a large direction-matching 30-90 day move yet.
signal brief
Multiple prediction markets on Manifold indicate very low probabilities for SMIC catching up to TSMC in advanced semiconductor manufacturing. As of June 2026, the market gives SMIC only an 18.8% chance to outcompete TSMC by 2033 (source 1), 4.6% by 2024 (source 2), and 15.4% by 2028 (source 3). Additionally, the probability of SMIC achieving 3nm node before 2026 stands at only 11% (source 4). These low odds reflect a consensus that SMIC continues to lag technologically behind TSMC, constrained by US export restrictions and limited access to advanced equipment. The data also highlights a 55.85% chance that key engineer Liang Mong-Song might leave SMIC within five years (source 5), which could further impede progress. Combined, these signals suggest persistent and likely widening competitive disadvantage for SMIC, benefiting TSMC as a primary alternative for advanced chip manufacturing.
evidence
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact-49aa07abdea3web
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufactweb
- https://manifold.markets/alby/will-chinas-smic-manage-to-manufact-13a6f53950b0web
- https://manifold.markets/ersatz/will-chinas-semiconductor-manufactuweb
- https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/will-liang-mongsong-work-at-a-semicweb
spillover entities
Decision support, not stock advice. This signal is research with cited evidence — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.