Prediction market data from Manifold Markets indicates a 55.85% probability that SMIC co-founder and co-CEO Liang...

Prediction market data from Manifold Markets indicates a 55.85% probability that SMIC co-founder and co-CEO Liang Mong-Song will leave the company within the next 5 years (Source 5). This sentiment is corroborated by low market-assessed probabilities of SMIC achieving competitive milestones: only 4.61% chance to outcompete TSMC by 2024 (Source 1), 15.39% by 2028 (Source 3), and 18.80% by 2033 (Source 2), as well as an 11% chance to reach 3nm before 2026 (Source 4). While these are only prediction market probabilities, they collectively reflect a bearish outlook on SMIC's technological trajectory and key talent retention. Should Liang depart, SMIC would lose a critical figure in its advanced node development, further widening the gap with TSMC and potentially affecting client confidence. Spillover effects could benefit TSMC if Liang joins or advises a rival.